A Prediction

The Screen Actors Guild commercial contract is up for negotiation in March.  I predict it will be a smack down drag out fight.  Here’s why…

On the actors side, they are bruised and sore from the messy losing battle they waged with the studios on the theatrical contract.   I know it’s technically not over and they still may strike, but it’s fairly clear who won this round and they’re going to want to take it out on someone.  And, commercials are very rarely art so from the actor’s point of view this is where they should be making their money.  The stakes will be very high for actors who make majority of their living off of commercials.

On the producers side, they resentfully feel that they prop up an entire union and due to lower ad spend and runaway production - something frequently blamed on expensive talent contracts in the US - their budgets have been steadily shrinking since the 90’s. On top of that if you talk to producers you’ll find there’s still lingering bitterness from the strike in 2000 so they’re not afraid of a fight this time around.

The only thing I’m not sure of is where the public’s sympathy will fall - with the actors who they mistakenly see as vastly better off than the general population.  Or with the crews - who have helplessly watched their jobs go to Canada, Argentina and Eastern Europe.

But I feel fairly certain of this, if you make any of your living in the world of commercial production I hope you’re saving your money now because we’re all going to need a big cushion come March.

Brace yourselves.  And hope I’m wrong.